MEDIA RELEASE PR35943
New RISI Global 15-Year Packaging Outlooks Show Containerboard Demand Growth
to Average 1.4% in North America, 5.6% in Asia and 6.6% in China Through 2024
BOSTON, Sept. 2 /PRNewswire-AsiaNet/ --
Forecast Highlights:
North America
- Bans on plastic bags not expected to lead to revival in paper bag
markets, as reusable bags are quickly gaining a foothold in many
markets.
- Competition from alternative packaging products will continue to
restrain domestic boxboard demand growth for the next 15 years - no
more than 3% demand growth by 2024.
Asia
- Asian boxboard consumption ratio to favor virgin grades as the booming
middle class in the region will buy more high-quality packaged
products.
- Major producers in the region will enjoy better profit margin on
virgin containerboard grades. New capacity from China will also
concentrate on the virgin grades.
Europe
- Despite 4% annual growth over the next 15 years, limited investment on
the Eastern Europe cartonboard capacity base should result in net
imports increasing by 60% relative to 2008 level.
- Construction of two new recycled containerboard mills in eastern Europe
is not expected to significantly threaten the western European
suppliers as the region is expected to continue to run substantial
trade deficit.
RISI, the leading information provider for the global forest products
industry, today released its global paper packaging 15-year forecasts.
Today's reports provide key data and analysis on end use market growth,
supply/demand balance, price forecasts, capacity removals, competitive costs,
and trade for cartonboard, containerboard, boxboard, and kraft paper markets
for Europe, North America, and Asia.
North America
According to Ken Waghorne, VP of RISI Paper Packaging, "The downward
trend in the merchandise trade deficit will allow North American
containerboard demand to grow 1.4% per year on average for the next 15 years,
doubling the growth rate that was recorded during the last 15 years. In
addition, US kraftliner exports are expected to grow solidly from 2010 to
2024. This growth will be a result of steady Latin American demand growth,
increased US competitiveness and an abundance of softwood fiber in the USA."
Waghorne continued, "Both kraft paper and boxboard markets in North
America will remain flat over the length of the forecast as they face
increased competition from alternative packaging options."
Asia
"China containerboard consumption will grow at 6.6% annually during our
forecast period, reaching almost 84 million tones by the end of 2024," said
Alex He, Economist Asia Paper Packaging. He continued, "China containerboard
capacity will also see continued growth, with an annual increase averaging
6.3% from 2010-2024. However, both China, and the remaining Asian markets
will be relatively small net exporters of recycled containerboard during this
period."
Europe
Orifjon Abidov, Economist of RISI's European Paper Packaging Service
said, "Despite their environmentally friendly image, recycled grades are
expected to lose market share in the western European cartonboard market, as
recycled board prices will be rising relative to virgin grades. This price
escalation will be due to relentless upward pressure on real recovered paper
prices." He continued, "On the containerboard side, continued volatility in
recovered paper markets is expected to create high variability in prices with
testliner expected to gain market share from kraftliner during weak market
conditions and the opposite effect under tighter market conditions."
For More Information or to Subscribe
Today's outlooks are the "North American Paper Packaging 15-Year
Forecast," "European Paper Packaging 15-Year Forecast" and the "Asian Paper
Packaging 15-Year Forecast." The outlooks highlight the details of the shifts
in paper packaging consumption and production among the North America,
European, and Asian markets, and detail the factors and impacts throughout
the paper industry.
RISI publishes annual 15-year outlooks, quarterly 5-year outlooks and,
monthly 2-year outlooks (or monitors). The forecasts released today cover the
paper packaging markets. RISI also produces 15 year outlooks on graphic
paper, fiber, recovered paper, and tissue markets.
For more information please click here and visit:
To request a detailed prospectus, please visit out contact us page for
appropriate global contact information:
About RISI
RISI is the leading information provider for the global forest products
industry. The company works with clients in the pulp and paper, wood
products, wood biomass, tissue, timber, non-wovens, printing and publishing
and financial services industries to help them make better decisions.
Headquartered in Boston (Bedford), Massachusetts, RISI operates offices
in Brussels, Belgium; Atlanta, Georgia; San Francisco, California; Portland,
Oregon; Sao Paulo, Brazil; Shanghai, China; Singapore; Helsinki, Finland; and
Charlottesville, Virginia.
Press Contact
Dan Blenk, RISI Marketing Director
4 Alfred Circle
Bedford, MA 01730
Tel: +1.781.734.8942
dblenk@risi.com
SOURCE: RISI
CONTACT: Dan Blenk, RISI Marketing Director,
+1-781-734-8942,
dblenk@risi.com;
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